Ocean and Climate Change

Theme 3: Ocean and Climate Change – the impacts on and from the Ocean: Adapting coastal communities to sea-level rise

Keynote Speech – Dr Rolph Payet, Special Advisor to the President of Seychelles.

UNESCO General Conference 13 September 2009

Distinguished Delegates

Millions of people on the planet now live on the edge of the abyss. The polar people and polar bears are seeing the ice melt before their very own eyes, and island people are seeing their land swallowed up by the sea, sometimes in a blink of an eye.

The ocean is the window to present and future climate change. To predict the onset of the cyclonic seasons, El Nino and other natural phenomenon, scientists turn to the oceans. The oceans are the earth’s barometer and heartbeat. We need to take heed of its signals. Recent studies strongly indicates that sea levels are rising much faster than estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We are now looking at a rise of more than 1.4 meters by 2100, assuming that the melting glaciers of Antarctica and Greenland do not accelerate. The World Bank estimates that a 10% increase in storm surge intensity would place 52 million people at risk of inundation.

These observations are unprecedented in human history. They are clear signals that something is desperately wrong with our planet.

Delegates, distinguished participants - we are living on borrowed time.

The outcome of the Bangkok meeting last week was dismal and as described by the Alliance of Small Island States - a last ditch attempt at ‘backsliding’ on existing climate commitments rather than seeking how we can resolve this crisis. It is essential that we build upon, not weaken, the existing climate framework. Derailing the climate change talks will place our planet, our homes, our people and our livelihood in jeopardy. The planet is now on the brink of a global shift in climate and although the science is compelling and the economic costs of inaction staggering, the international community is caught in an impasse over the commitment of larger economies to address the issues of mitigating causal emissions and adapting to impacts and threats proactively.

The people of planet earth needs a firm promise; an unrivalled pledge to cut ‘real’ emissions to safe levels. A firm deal in Copenhagen will be a deal for all humanity.

Copenhagen has to be the turning point – for you and for me, for your children and for mine. It took more than forty years for the international community to start paying serious attention to the issue of climate change, and the evidence is sufficient to require urgent action by world leaders. We now need concrete action, we need an overall reduction of at least 85% in global emissions below 1990 levels by 2050. According to the Stern Report, business as usual is likely to cost the planet between 5 and 20% of global GDP per year, with the poorest sharing the largest proportion of that cost.

There is no doubt that the solution to climate change on the other hand will cost, but it will not hurt the average consumer in the developed world. In fact recent studies have shown that the cost to developed countries for achieving a 40 per cent reduction by 2020 is as low as 0.5 to 1.5% of GDP.

The impact of climate change on the oceans will result in profound changes in the livelihoods of millions of people around the world. The effects which include sea level rise threathen to displace entire island nations and millions of coastal populations living along the world’s major delta’s. The warming of the ocean is already evident in the migration of many fish species northward. Ocean warming will further lead to increased stratification, changing circulation patterns of ocean currents, reduce sea ice, increase coral bleaching and mortality, and increased algal blooms and movement of invasive species. Ocean acidification as a result of increase CO2 in the atmosphere will also have disastrous consequences for marine populations and species, especially coral reefs, crabs, lobsters, shell fish and so on. These dramatic changes in the ocean food chain will lead to substantial changes in fish stocks as well as availability of food to coastal populations.

Delegates

Indeed, the Seychelles suffered as a result of the 1998 Indian Ocean coral bleaching event, where in some areas we lost almost 90% of coral cover. This was the first major recorded mass coral bleaching event in the history of Seychelles, and indeed we have had repeated bleaching since 1998. Shifts in fish populations have been observed, and although there is recovery in some areas, scientists are of the view that coral reefs are on the brink of a major collapse in some areas of the world. The implications will not only be the loss of food sources but also increases in coastal erosion.

Estimates assembled through the expert opinions of 372 coral reef scientists and managers from 96 countries, and reported in the Status of Coral Reef of the World 2008, by the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, reports that the world has effectively lost 19% of the original area of coral reefs with more than 35% under threat from direct human impact in the next 40 years. These experts further highlighted the number one threat to coral reefs as being climate change.

Worldwide, marine and freshwater fisheries generate over US$130 billion annually, employ at least 200 million people, and feed billions of people reliant on fish as an important source of protein. A report by the UN published earlier this year noted that the worst effects of a combination of climate change, over-harvesting, bottom trawling, invasive species infestations, coastal development and pollution are concentrated in 10 to 15 per cent of oceans -far higher than previously thought. Combined with the effects of climate change – the results would be disastrous.

Naturally our knowledge on how the oceans will respond to climate change is limited, but recent observed evidence strongly shows how dramatic the changes can be and how the ocean can redefine humanity in an instant. Many Pacific and Indian Ocean islanders stand to lose their entire territory as a result of sea level rise, many millions will lose access to food, and still many more will be displaced as climate change refugees.

Indeed, our efforts at the World Ocean Conference in Manado, Indonesia, in May earlier this year (2009) resulted in the Manado Declaration which urgently called for co-ordinated action to reverse the impact of climate-change on the oceans and for the issue to be substantively included in ongoing climate talks. This was further highlighted by the UNFCCC Executive Secretary last week in Bangkok, whereby oceans feature in the climate change talks and addresses issues such as vulnerable coastal communities, subsistence fishermen, enhancing capacity building, the importance of marine and fisheries researches to support policy implementation and adaptation and mitigation strategies.

The Global Forum on Oceans, Coasts and Islands, in which UNESCO acts as Co-Chair has been instrumental since 2002 in mobilising the world’s governments to address issues related to oceans, coasts, and small island developing States – and climate change has become a top agenda item. These issues were tabled as part of the World Summit on Sustainable Development, the Small Islands States meeting in Mauritius, and at the recent UNESCO experts meeting in Monaco on climate change and arctic sustainable development, thus showing the vital link between oceans, climate change and sustainable development.

We cannot achieve the MDGS and other targets without maintaining focus on sustainable development. Linking climate change to sustainable development is a key area in which UNESCO can continue to play a growing role. Only by bringing together the science, the education and the role of societies can we effectively overcome man’s greatest challenge in this decade. Global warming is already affecting developing countries’ ability to develop. As pointed out in a 2007 New York Times report investigating the climate divide, a country like the United States with agriculture accounting for only 4 percent of the economy, is far more able to endure climate shocks than a country like Malawi with a 90 percent rural population and 40 percent of the economy dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Under growing population pressure, the additional stressors – and largely unknown costs - imposed by a changing climate threaten to constrain or even roll back hard-won progress towards achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

The transformation we need is a jump towards a decarbonised planet. Our dependence on fossil fuel-driven technology and expansion of unsustainable global trade has heightened irresponsible consumption, undermined national food security and recklessly mortgaged our planet. Ironically the oceans can also be a potential carbon-free and renewable source of energy.

A new paradigm which stimulates social conscience and the required transformation is indispensable. We need new models of finance that will stimulate expansion of the world economy towards sustainable consumption and fair flows of wealth and resources. Transfer of key technologies and innovations to neighbours and partners will facilitate adaptation and mitigation to climate change.

Imposing this burden to solve the climate change crisis to developing and poor nations will not resolve the crisis. By far the largest per capita generators of greenhouse gases are in developed countries and decisive leadership is needed. Shifting the burden beyond 2020 is also not acceptable. We are responsible for the state of the planet and we should take responsibility for our actions. To solve climate change and tame the oceans needs the unparalleled commitment of developed countries.

Thank you